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Exposure to climate hazards is increasing, and the experiences of frontline communities warrant meaningful and urgent attention towards how to mitigate, manage, and adapt to hazards. We report results from a community-engaged pilot (November 2021–June 2022) ofN= 30 participants in four frontline communities of the San Francisco Bay Area, California, USA. The study region is an area where low-income, non-English-speaking residents are inequitably exposed and vulnerable to wildfire smoke, extreme heat, and other climate hazards. Building from a yearslong partnership of researchers, community organizations, and community members, we report the feasibility of a project piloting (1) instruments to monitor indoor air quality, temperature, and participant sleep health, and (2) interventions to improve indoor air quality and support protective behaviors. Data collection included experience-based survey data (via in-person administered surveys and a smartphone application) and interviews about heat and air quality, as well as data from an air monitoring protocol. Results cover the prevalence of hazard exposure and protective actions among participants. We discuss throughout methods for conducting and evaluating a community-engaged pilot, particularly by using a community ambassador program. Implications include the feasibility of community-engaged research projects, including discussion of resources required to accomplish this work.

 

Many volcanoes emit a significant portion of the gas they transport to the atmosphere during continual passive degassing rather than during eruptions. To maintain a high gas and thermal flux without erupting magma, the flow field in the volcanic conduit must be approximately balanced with gas-rich, buoyant magma ascending and degassed, heavy magma descending. In vertical conduits, this exchange flow takes the form of core–annular flow, where the gas-rich magma forms a core enclosed by an annulus of degassed magma. The flow dynamics of core–annular flow have been studied extensively in fluid dynamics, but mostly for constant material properties. Our study aims to advance our understanding of how core–annular flow responds to volatile exsolution – a simple, yet ubiquitous disruption in volcanic conduits, which alters both the density and the viscosity of the core fluid. By deriving an evolution equation for the core–annular interface based on a generalized exchange-flow condition using a lubrication approximation, we find that the response of the system to volatile exsolution depends on the conduit flow regime. The same nucleation event can lead to a flow adjustment only in the upper, only in the lower or in both portions of the volcanic conduit. Our results emphasize that the thermodynamic evolution of magma properties and volcanic conduit flow are intricately linked, which may help understand the observed variability of eruptive behaviour at persistently degassing volcanoes. 

Most basaltic lavas begin flowing as pāhoehoe but sometimes transition into ‘a‘ā. Field observations and previous models have demonstrated that the rheology of smooth, liquid‐like pāhoehoe is distinct from rough, pasty ‘a‘ā, but the cause of this dramatic and rapidly occurring change in rheology has remained unclear. Here, we propose that the pāhoehoe to ‘a‘ā transition could be initiated by the Yih instability, an internal shear instability, in layered pāhoehoe flow. We show that the conditions under which instability arises depend on both extrinsic and intrinsic factors and derive a non‐dimensional regime diagram. We test the model's prediction of stable flow configurations against field observations of solidified lava flows.

 

Projections of global sea level depend sensitively on whether Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, will continue to lose ice rapidly. Prior studies have focused primarily on understanding the evolution of ice velocity and whether the reverse‐sloping bed at Thwaites Glacier could drive irreversible retreat. However, the overall ice flux to the ocean and the possibility of irreversible retreat depend not only on the ice speed but also on the width of the main ice trunk. Here, we complement prior work by focusing specifically on understanding whether the lateral boundaries of the main ice trunk, termed shear margins, might migrate over time. We hypothesize that the shear margins at Thwaites Glacier will migrate on a decadal timescale in response to continued ice thinning and surface steepening. We test this hypothesis by developing a depth‐averaged, thermomechanical free‐boundary model that captures the complex topography underneath the glacier and solves for both the ice velocity and for the position of the shear margins. We find that both shear margins are prone to migration in response to ice thinning with basal strength and surface slope steepening determining their relative motion. We construct four end‐member cases of basal strength that represent different physical properties governing friction at the glacier bed and present two cases of ice thinning to contrast the effects of surface steepening and ice thinning. We test our model by hindcasting historic data and discuss how data from ongoing field campaigns could further be used to test our model.

 

Abstract Rapid ice loss is facilitated by sliding over beds consisting of reworked sediments and erosional products, commonly referred to as till. The dynamic interplay between ice and till reshapes the bed, creating landforms preserved from past glaciations. Leveraging the imprint left by past glaciations as constraints for projecting future deglaciation is hindered by our incomplete understanding of evolving basal slip. Here, we develop a continuum model of water-saturated, cohesive till to quantify the interplay between meltwater percolation and till mobilization that governs changes in the depth of basal slip under fast-moving ice. Our model explains the puzzling variability of observed slip depths by relating localized till deformation to perturbations in pore-water pressure. It demonstrates that variable slip depth is an inherent property of the ice-meltwater-till system, which could help understand why some paleo-landforms like grounding-zone wedges appear to have formed quickly relative to current till-transport rates. 

Persistent volcanic activity is thought to be linked to degassing, but volatile transport at depth cannot be observed directly. Instead, we rely on indirect constraints, such as CO₂‐H₂O concentrations in melt inclusions trapped at different depth, but this data is rarely straight‐forward to interpret. In this study, we integrate a multiscale conduit‐flow model for non‐eruptive conditions and a volatile‐concentration model to compute synthetic profiles of volatile concentrations for different flow conditions and CO₂fluxing. We find that actively segregating bubbles in the flow enhance the mixing of volatile‐poor and volatile‐rich magma in vertical conduit segments, even if the radius of these bubbles is several orders of magnitude smaller than the width of the conduit. This finding suggests that magma mixing is common in volcanic systems when magma viscosities are low enough to allow for bubble segregation as born out by our comparison with melt‐inclusion data: Our simulations show that even a small degree of mixing leads to volatile concentration profiles that are much more comparable to observations than either open‐ or closed‐system degassing trends for both Stromboli and Mount Erebus. Our results also show that two of the main processes affecting observed volatile concentrations, magma mixing and CO₂fluxing, leave distinct observational signatures, suggesting that tracking them jointly could help better constrain changes in conduit flow. We argue that disaggregating melt‐inclusion data based on the eruptive behavior at the time could advance our understanding of how conduit flow changes with eruptive regimes.

 

As sea level rises, urban traffic networks in low-lying coastal areas face increasing risks of flood disruptions. Closure of flooded roads causes employee absences and delays, creating cascading impacts to communities. We integrate a traffic model with flood maps that represent potential combinations of storm surges, tides, seasonal cycles, interannual anomalies driven by large-scale climate variability such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, and sea level rise. When identifying inundated roads, we propose corrections for potential biases arising from model integration. Our results for the San Francisco Bay Area show that employee absences are limited to the homes and workplaces within the areas of inundation, while delays propagate far inland. Communities with limited availability of alternate roads experience long delays irrespective of their proximity to the areas of inundation. We show that metric reach, a measure of road network density, is a better proxy for delays than flood exposure. 

Abstract. Ice sheets lose the majority of their mass through outlet glaciers or ice streams, corridors of fast ice moving multiple orders of magnitude more rapidly than the surrounding ice. The future stability of these corridors of fast-moving ice depends sensitively on the behaviour of their boundaries, namely shear margins, grounding zones and the basal sliding interface, where the stress field is complex and fundamentally three-dimensional. These boundaries are prone to thermomechanical localisation, which can be captured numerically only with high temporal and spatial resolution. Thus, better understanding the coupled physical processes that govern the response of these boundaries to climate change necessitates a non-linear, full Stokes model that affords high resolution and scales well in three dimensions. This paper's goal is to contribute to the growing toolbox for modelling thermomechanical deformation in ice by leveraging graphical processing unit (GPU) accelerators' parallel scalability. We propose FastICE, a numerical model that relies on pseudo-transient iterations to solve the implicit thermomechanical coupling between ice motion and temperature involving shear heating and a temperature-dependent ice viscosity. FastICE is based on the finite-difference discretisation, and we implement the pseudo-time integration in a matrix-free way. We benchmark the mechanical Stokes solver against the finite-element code Elmer/Ice and report good agreement among the results. We showcase a parallel version of FastICE to run on GPU-accelerated distributed memory machines, reaching a parallel efficiency of 99 %. We show that our model is particularly useful for improving our process-based understanding of flow localisation in the complex transition zones bounding rapidly moving ice.